Before I get into the meat of this post, I need to say that Aaron Rodgers is a really good quarterback and Green Bay has a very good offense. I have a lot more respect for that unit than the other two offenses the Steelers have faced in the playoffs so far. They have a lot of weapons and know how to use them.
The Packers were big favorites on the road against the Bears and they are favored again in the Super Bowl mostly due to belief in Rodgers and the Packers air attack. That said, the hype about Rodgers and the Packers offense has already gotten a little extreme. Tons of people are ready to start carving out Rodgers’ bust for Canton and I’m reading a lot of people saying that he is going to toy with the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. Not me. Jump it for the scoop on why I’m more skeptical than most about the Packers high-powered offense.
The reason I’m not ready to give me imaginary Hall of Fame vote to Rodgers is because almost all of the hype and accolades he’s received in recent weeks stems from a single game — his awesome performance against Atlanta.
Watching him that night was like watching somebody play Madden. 31/36 for 366 yards, 3 TDs. It was a game for the ages, one of the best ever played by a QB.
But so many people forget that Rodgers played 2 other games this postseason too. He was effective in the Wild Card round against Philadelphia when he tossed 3 TDs and only turned the ball over once. But he only threw for 180 yards and Green Bay only scored 21 points.
A few days ago, he struggled during all but a couple of drives against Chicago, throwing 2 interceptions and posting a QB rating of 55.4.
Which Rodgers and which Green Bay offense is going to show up in the Super Bowl? — the one that didn’t punt at all against Atlanta or the one that went 2/11 on third downs at Chicago?
The answer is probably both. One of the Packers biggest weaknesses is their inconsistency. Rodgers looks like a world beater some weeks and like David Carr the next. Believe it or not, Football Outsiders as the Steelers offense rated higher in offensive efficiency than the Packers this season.
The best defense Green Bay faced this year was Chicago’s and they had mixed results. In the three games, Rodgers threw for 2 TDs and 4 INTs. The Packers stretch run to the playoffs was filled with average to below-average defensive teams too.
Like I wrote in my post on why the Steelers playoff offense is more productive than the Pats and Colts, it isn’t how flashy you are or or what mind-blowing numbers you put on paper. It’s all about timing in the playoffs. The Steelers offense can still make plays and be productive when Roethlisberger posts a QB rating under 40 and doesn’t throw a TD because they grind out first downs.
New England aside, the Steelers have done a great job in recent years of containing explosive offenses in the playoffs. Dick LeBeau led the Steelers to wins over the 2005 Indianapolis Colts and Seattle Seahawks. In 2008, Pittsburgh defeated San Diego Chargers and Arizona Cardinals.
For one game, the Packers offense looked unstoppable, but both history and the Packers other 18 games this year show that the Atlanta game was the exception, not the rule.
