For the previous playoff games, I’ve split this into three parts, but you don’t have anything to do on Sunday other than get pumped for the game, right? So, in the words of the halftime act that I definitely won’t watch, “Let’s get it started!”
Before I dive into the charts and give my own thoughts on the big game, I strongly urge you to read the Football Outsiders preview, as it includes a lot of the stats I’m citing here and has tons of great analysis. I also urge you to visit Advanced NFL Stats’ matchup page, which includes all their essential stats for both the Steelers and Packers.
Charts, key players, and predictions after the jump!
Steelers Offense vs. Packers Defense
Overall
|
Team |
Weighted DVOA |
Rank |
Rush DVOA |
Rank |
Pass DVOA |
Rank |
Rush EPA/Play |
Rank |
Pass EPA/Play |
Rank |
|
PIT O |
21.5% |
3 |
0.2% |
14 |
45.6% |
3 |
-0.02 |
13 |
0.18 |
7 |
|
GB D |
-13.5% |
2 |
-1.8% |
16 |
-17.9% |
1 |
-0.01 |
20 |
-0.08 |
1 |
According to both sites, the Packers have the top pass defense in the NFL this year. They also have the worst run defense of the three teams the Steelers have faced in the playoffs. Rashard Mendenhall and the offensive line will need to do well in order for Ben Roethlisberger and the big play offense to come through. The packers have only faced one QB of comparable style to Ben, that being Michael Vick in week 1 and the Wild Card game, and the defense performed just above average, with the Packers winning both games in close fashion.
Packers Line Stats
|
Team |
Adjusted Line Yards |
Rank |
Power Success |
Rank |
Adjusted Sack Rate |
Rank |
|
PIT O |
3.88 |
19 |
64% |
12 |
8.6% |
29 |
|
GB D |
4.22 |
20 |
46% |
2 |
8.2% |
4 |
The main thing to take away from here is that the Packers have been better this season than both the Jets (11th) and the Ravens (27th) in getting to the QB. Sure, most of that is Clay Matthews, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on.
Packers vs. Type of Receiver
|
Vs. #1 WR |
Vs. #2 WR |
Vs. Other WR |
Vs. TE |
Vs. RB |
||||||||||
|
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
|
-23.5% |
3 |
54.5 |
18.8% |
5 |
38.1 |
-24.7% |
4 |
40.2 |
13.0% |
22 |
54.0 |
-15.6% |
5 |
37.7 |
Well, the Packers have been very good against all type of receivers…except tight ends. The Steelers just happen to have an excellent pass-catching tight end in Heath Miller. The Steelers should be able to exploit this, especially in the red zone.
Packers Offense vs. Steelers Defense
Overall
|
Team |
Weighted DVOA |
Rank |
Rush DVOA |
Rank |
Pass DVOA |
Rank |
Rush EPA/Play |
Rank |
Pass EPA/Play |
Rank |
|
GB O |
12.1% |
10 |
1.7% |
11 |
33.0% |
6 |
-0.02 |
12 |
0.21 |
3 |
|
PIT D |
-19.6% |
1 |
-27.7% |
1 |
-13.0% |
2 |
-0.10 |
1 |
-0.05 |
4 |
The Steelers have the top defense in the NFL, and while the Packers offense is slightly better statistically than the Ravens, and much better than the Jets, it’s definitely a different offense, that is similar to the Steelers in many ways: a deceptively mobile QB with several receivers who can make big plays. There’s a sense of familiarity there which, plus the experience of facing each other relatively recently, makes me think the score will be a bit lower than the 37-36 score of 2009.
Line Stats
|
Team |
Adjusted Line Yards |
Rank |
Power Success |
Rank |
Adjusted Sack Rate |
Rank |
|
GB O |
3.82 |
23 |
55% |
25 |
7.2% |
21 |
|
PIT D |
3.47 |
1 |
59% |
10 |
8.3% |
3 |
Their offensive line is mediocre, relative to the running backs, and is below-average in protecting the QB. I expect a fair number of sacks in this game, unless both QBs have Houdini tricks up their sleeves (ouch, bad mixed metaphor alert).
Steelers vs. Type of Receiver
|
Vs. #1 WR |
Vs. #2 WR |
Vs. Other WR |
Vs. TE |
Vs. RB |
||||||||||
|
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
|
-18.1% |
4 |
65.4 |
-23.4% |
3 |
49.8 |
0.3% |
18 |
47.4 |
-10.5% |
5 |
43.1 |
2.2% |
15 |
40.0 |
The Packers’ top receiving RB, Brandon Jackson, is injured, but John Kuhn (out of Shippensburg University, as Al Michaels would point out 20 times if NBC were broadcasting this game) has been very effective in limited action. I would also look for Jordy Nelson or James Jones to make a big play at some point.
Special Teams/Penalty Rate
The Steelers rank 26th in penalty yards per play, while the Packers rank fourth. In a close game, it could come down to a key penalty late in the game, which would definitely raise the ire of talk show hosts and callers alike. Of course, it could also come down to special teams:
Special Teams Stats
|
Team |
DVOA |
Rk |
FG/XP |
Rk |
Kicks |
Rk |
Kick Ret |
Rk |
Punt |
Rk |
Punt Ret |
Rk |
|
PIT |
-0.3% |
17 |
-1.1 |
24 |
-1.2 |
20 |
3.6 |
12 |
9.4 |
5 |
-5.5 |
28 |
|
GB |
-2.2% |
27 |
0.4 |
17 |
-5.8 |
27 |
-10.8 |
28 |
4.1 |
15 |
-1.2 |
19 |
Special teams are the only area that any team is awful in. The Packers are among the worst teams in the league at kickoffs and kickoff returns. For a game that is so evenly matched in both offense and defense, the field position battle could very well determine the game. I would give the advantage to the Steelers in this area, which is why…wait, you almost had me, I’m not making my prediction up here!
Four Key Players
-
Antonio Brown, WR/KR: I’ve been saying this all playoffs, but with field position key, especially with two evenly-matched teams, Brown’s returns against a mediocre kickoff coverage team will be big.
-
Heath Miller, TE: I mentioned this up top, but with the Packers’ poor defense against tight ends, Miller will almost certainly be thrown to at key points in red zone drives.
-
Chad Clifton, LT: Really, this should go to the entire Packers O-Line, but I singled out Clifton because, according to FO, the Packers are the worst in the league at running to the left side. The Packers O-Line has been overlooked, in my opinion, and is worse than you think.
-
Clay Matthews, LB: I hate to put the Packers’ defensive star on this list, but how big a game he has will be a sign of how the game is going for the Steelers. If his name is yelled out just two or three times, the Steelers O-Line is having a great day. If it’s yelled five or six times, the Steelers might be in trouble (though Joe Buck doesn’t really yell at all, but you know what I mean.)
Give us your prediction, Dammit!
To make a long story short (too late!), this is a very close game on paper, with the Steelers being favored slightly by one Football Outsiders algorithm and the Packers favored slightly by another (link behind paywall). I think field position will be the difference, in a Steelers…victory, by a score of…read the pick’em post!
