It’s already time for Conference Championships. This weekend we will have the Jets vs. Steelers and the Packers vs. Bears. Both games will match the two seed against the six seed. So far, the playoffs have been great for the NFL and all of its fans, with huge upsets and some very exciting games. I think both trends will continue in the Conference Championships, and we will see another 2 seed vs. 6 seed match-up, but this time in Dallas for the Super Bowl.
Jump for our thoughts and predictions on who will represent their Conference in the Super Bowl…
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears:
Matt:
Obviously this is a historic match-up. The Bears and Packers define what a rivalry is…yet this will be the first time they play with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. I think both teams are evenly matched, and there is a reason for that…they were built to beat each other. Every year their #1 goal is to beat each other. With both teams so evenly matched, I predict this game comes down to 2 major areas, Ball Security and Special Teams.
The first key, ball security, is obvious. The team that wins the turn over battle usually wins the game, but in my opinion, it is the second key that will decide this game. There has been so much talk about Rodgers, Cutler, both defenses, and even the weather. Now all of those elements will play major roles…but I think the most important aspect of the game is Special Teams. In my opinion it’s the only area where the Bears have the obvious advantage. If the Packers can keep punt and kick returns minimal, and make sure they aren’t momentum changers…I think the Packers can go to Chicago and take the NFC crown. Close game, but I think Rodgers and the Pack come out with a win.
Packers 27, Bears 20
Brian:
I’m absolutely rooting for the Packers because I like them, but if all goes well at Heinz Field, they’ll be the Steelers opponents in the Super Bowl. Even so, I would rather concede a Super Bowl to the Packers than Bears (worst case scenario, of course). Plus Jay Cutler always humiliates the Steelers; so facing him wouldn’t be that awesome. I’m gonna go with the Pack on this one.
George:
Most of the pundits have been talking about the Bears defense as the key to the game. I think the key, beyond the standard home field advantage, is special teams. Football Outsiders has the Packers ranked 28th and the Bears ranked 2nd. I’m going to predict that Devin Hester takes at least one kick or punt back for a TD, and at least one other deep into Packer territory. Whether that will be enough to win will depend on the turnover ratio. I think the Packers sneak out with a win. It certainly won’t be the blowout some are expecting.
Packers 31, Bears 24
Bam:
Let me just get this off my chest: Aaron Rodgers isn’t the second coming of Dan Marino. He has played a few really, really good playoff games against shaky defenses and put up a lot of points on the board. If he dominates throwing the ball and wins the next two games during this playoff run, then he is worth getting all riled up over. There is no way he is duplicating his performance against Atlanta this week. No way. I think he’s a great QB, but nobody is going to be that efficient week in and week out. I’ve bashed the Bears pretty hard on the podcast the past two weeks and I still don’t think they are that good and I don’t trust Jay Cutler. But they play better at home and their defense should keep them in the game. I’m tempted to pick Chicago here but I think the Packers pull it out in a much closer contest than most expect.
Packers 24, Bears 21
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers:
Matt:
Here is the game every Steelers fan is waiting anxiously for, the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the New York Jets. We all know the severity of the game; the winner is AFC Champion and goes to the Super Bowl. As I predicted in the pre-season, we are going to see the Steelers vs. the Packers in the Super Bowl.
I think the Jets are a great team, but I think they don’t match up well against the Steelers. Now, I know they already beat the Steelers this year…but they didn’t really. In that Week 15 game, the Steelers played without Heath Miller and Troy Polamalu. Troy Polamalu is obviously the Steelers’ most important player on defense, and the drop-off in talent from Heath Miller to Matt Spaeth / David Johnson is huge. The Jets started that game with an opening kick-off TD return, which left the Steelers playing catch-up all game. The Steelers defense played well, but still let Mark Sanchez sneak into the end zone for the Jets’ only offensive touchdown in the game, a play that I am positive would have ended differently had Troy been playing. On the other end of the ball the Steelers had trouble sustaining drives, but despite that still had the chance to steal the game in the final minutes. An incomplete pass to Spaeth was the difference between a win and a loss. I know that no two games are alike, but you have to like the Steelers chances with Polamalu and Miller playing.
Plus, from the Jets perspective, the Steelers are probably a tougher match-up than the Patriots were. Steelers have a tougher and more mobile quarter back; a better group of running backs, more speed at the receiver position, and a better more physical defense. I think this game will be close in the first half, but the Steelers (Polamalu and Miller included) make some big plays to pull away in the second half.
Steelers 34, Jets 23
Brian:
Well, well, well. I have to thank them for beating the Patriots (and Colts I guess) but it’s all business right now. The Jets and Steelers offer a lot of interesting match-ups, and the one that worries me the most is the Jets’ front 7 against the Steelers’ patchwork O-line. They played well enough to beat Baltimore though, so I’ve got to think they have the hang of things by now. Hopefully, Ben’s on-field experience will be what it takes to overcome the Jets’ ferocious defense and Mark Sanchez can’t keep up against Dick LeBeau’s. I’m picking the Steelers. Who picks against their home team in a championship game?
George:
As I’ve saying in my preview, the Jets are remarkably similar to the Ravens, but slightly worse in all three phases of the game. It’s a good match-up for the Steelers, but things could easily go wrong, like they did in week 15. That being said, having Heath Miller and especially Troy Polamalu back will make the difference. It’ll be close, but as long as special teams don’t blow up in the Steelers’ faces, the edge has to go to them.
Steelers 24, Jets 20
Bam:
It is still only the middle of the week as I’m writing this, but I’m stunned at how much support the Jets are getting from a lot of the great football minds. They were up and down throughout most of the regular season and barely beat an Indianapolis team that wasn’t very good. Of course, the main reason the Jets have become a trendy pick for this game is because of what they did to the Patriots last weekend. But the Pats have struggled in the playoffs since 2007 and I just can’t put a ton of stock into a single game. When I look at the rest of the season for the Jets, I see a really solid defense but an inconsistent offense with a QB who can’t be trusted to carry his team to a win. That isn’t a good recipe for beating the Steelers at Heinz Field. I think points will be hard to come by, but I can’t pick a Mark Sanchez-led team over a Ben Roethlisberger-led team. The Jets defense has gotten all the hype this week, but it’s not like the Steelers are trotting out the 08 Lions on defense. The Steelers defense is much, much better than anybody the Jets have faced in the playoffs. Sanchez only led New York to 12 offensive points in the first game at Pittsburgh. In sum, I think the Steelers are a little better on offense and a little better on defense. The Jets are much better on special teams and that could be enough to tilt the game in their favor but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Steelers 27, Jets 17
STAFF PICKS
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Playoffs Wild Card |
Bam |
Brian |
George |
Matt |
|
2010 Record Regular Season Record |
165-91 1st place |
156-100 4th place |
157-99 3rd place |
161-95 2nd place |
|
2010 Playoffs Record |
5-3 |
4-4 |
4-4 |
5-3 |
|
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears |
Green Bay Packers |
Green Bay Packers |
Green Bay Packers |
Green Bay Packers |
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New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
