To get you prepared for the AFC Championship game between the Steelers and Jets, we’re going deep into the advanced stats in three separate posts to see where each team has the advantage. As usual, Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats provide all the number-y goodness.
Now is the part of the preview when we dance! you’ll come away thinking there’s no way the Steelers can’t win this game. The Steelers have the best defense in the NFL, according to both Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats, while the Jets offense is ranked 19th by FO and 20th in efficiency by ANS. Their ranking in EPA per play is similar, as you’ll see in the chart below.
Overall
|
Team |
Weighted DVOA |
Rank |
Rush DVOA |
Rank |
Pass DVOA |
Rank |
Rush EPA/Play |
Rank |
Pass EPA/Play |
Rank |
|
NYJ O |
1.9% |
19 |
9.6% |
5 |
10.3% |
19 |
0.02 |
8 |
0.04 |
20 |
|
PIT D |
-19.6% |
1 |
-27.7% |
1 |
-13.0% |
2 |
-0.10 |
1 |
-0.05 |
4 |
Both sites confirm the standard assessment: that the Jets are a very good running team and a mediocre, inconsistent passing team. This definitely plays into the Steelers’ strength. The Jets have the sixth highest variance in offensive performance this season, according to FO.
More charts after the jump!
Offensive/Defensive Line Stats
|
Team |
Adjusted Line Yards |
Rank |
Power Success |
Rank |
Adjusted Sack Rate |
Rank |
|
NYJ O |
4.54 |
3 |
76% |
2 |
5.4% |
8 |
|
PIT D |
3.47 |
1 |
59% |
10 |
8.3% |
3 |
The offensive line is where the matchup most favors the Jets. If they can get into third- or fourth-and-short situations, they are very likely to convert them. They are also better than the Ravens at protecting the QB. The matchups against LG Matt Slauson and RT Wayne Hunter, the Jets’ two weakest O-line members, will be key.
Steelers Defense vs. Types of Receivers
|
Vs. #1 WR |
Vs. #2 WR |
Vs. Other WR |
Vs. TE |
Vs. RB |
||||||||||
|
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
|
-18.1% |
4 |
65.4 |
-23.4% |
3 |
49.8 |
0.3% |
18 |
47.4 |
-10.5% |
5 |
43.1 |
2.2% |
15 |
40.0 |
This chart hasn’t changed since last week, since Football Outsiders hasn’t updated these stats. LaDainian Tomlinson was one of the more-used running backs in the passing game in the league this season, and I could him or Shonn Greene being fairly effective against the Steelers. Fortunately for the Steelers, the Jets basically have a two-receiver offense, as Jerricho Cotchery has been one of the worst regular WRs in the NFL by FO’s metrics. Braylon Edwards had one of his best games against the Steelers in week 15, but with Troy Polamalu back, that likely won’t happen again.
Other charts:
Red Zone
|
Team |
Red Zone Pass |
Red Zone Rush |
|
NYJ O |
-24.8% |
33.7% |
|
PIT D |
-40.1% |
-37.2% |
By Half
|
Team |
1st Half |
2nd Half |
Late/Close |
|
NYJ O |
6.3% |
5.1% |
13.6% |
|
PIT D |
-21.9% |
-15.7% |
-12.9% |
By Down
|
Team |
1st Down |
2nd Down |
3rd/4th Down |
|
NYJ O |
9.6% |
-2.6% |
12.3% |
|
PIT D |
-34.9% |
2.7% |
-21.3% |
Breaking DVOA by down essentially shows the same thing as looking at the line stats: avoid second-and-short or third-and-short, because they are good in those situations. The Jets have one of the best offensive DVOAs when it’s late and close, something that, when placed in the wrong hands, could support those “Mark Sanchez has the poise to lead the Jets to the Super Bowl!” talking points. Everything else just continues to support the fact that the Jets have a very solid running game, which the Steelers have the defense to stop.
