I’m a numbers guy, as you can probably tell from reading my stuff. So, anything that analyzes sports using numbers, especially in a new way, is something I have to check out. Scorecasting, by Jon Wertheim and Tobias Moskowitz, is the latest in a long line of these types of books, and I definitely recommend it, especially if you’re a fan of all sports.
The piece of analysis in the book that I found most interesting in its simplicity was in the chapter titled “Thanks, Mr. Rooney”: before the NFL implemented the Rooney Rule, named of course after Dan Rooney, one could tell there was discrimination against black coaches. However, Janice Madden, the analyst Johnnie Cochran hired to look at the issue, didn’t use salary, or number of coaches, but the coaches’ performance.
Black coaches performed much better, as a whole, than white coaches. For example, 71% of black coaches made the playoffs in their first season, as opposed to 23% of white coaches. This was a sign that not enough black coaches were given opportunities, since there weren’t enough failures. A second try adjusting for team ability (since perhaps better teams were hiring black coaches) produced similar results.
Doing a similar study of teams after the Rooney Rule was implemented showed that black and white coaches were performing at the same level, which is exactly what you would expect from equal opportunity.
“If African-American coaches don’t fail, it means that those with equal talents to the failing white coaches are not even getting a chance to be a coach,” Madden explains. “Seeing African-American coaches fail means that they, like white coaches, no longer have to be superstars to get jobs.”
For every Mike Tomlin, there is a Mike Singletary, and that is good news, since it means both Eric Mangini and Romeo Crennel can be given chances by the Browns to be awful head coaches
Among their other findings of note to Steelers fans:
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Referees generally try to allow the players to decide things on the field. Calls that are judgment calls in the fourth quarter of close games go way down.
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A lot of home field advantage comes from referee bias toward the home team, and this is amplified the larger the crowd is. So those Terrible Towels aren’t really distracting the players, but they might be subconsciously affecting the refs’ call on close judgment calls
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The authors go into a detailed history of the famous “point value chart” that many NFL teams use to value draft picks
If you’re interested in purchasing Scorecasting, the Amazon link is here. There may be other Offseason Reading Material posts in the future, depending on whether there’s a lockout and on how bored I get during what will surely be another below .500 Pirates season.
