To get you prepared for the AFC Championship game between the Steelers and Jets, we’re going deep into the advanced stats in three separate posts to see where each team has the advantage. As usual, Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats provide all the number-y goodness.
Before I start into the charts, I want to note that when I went to these sites to look at the advanced stats, I was surprised how similar the Ravens and Jets are. Both have a top-tier defense (Ravens third by FO, Jets fourth), good special teams (BAL third, NYJ tenth), and a mediocre offense (BAL 15th, NYJ 19th). However, as you can tell by the rankings, the Ravens are better than the Jets in all three areas of the game, the only exception being Advanced NFL Stats ranking the Jets defense third and the Ravens defense fifth. That doesn’t mean there aren’t intriguing matchups, as I will go into in this three-part preview.
The only updates made to the posted efficiency stats during the playoffs are Football Outsiders’ overall, offensive, and defensive DVOA. Everything else, including o-line and d-line data, are from just the regular season. I have also substituted in a different stat from Advanced NFL Stats.
Overall Efficiency
|
Team |
Weighted DVOA |
Rank |
Rush DVOA |
Rank |
Pass DVOA |
Rank |
Rush EPA/Play |
Rank |
Pass EPA/Play |
Rank |
|
PIT O |
21.5% |
3 |
0.2% |
14 |
45.6% |
3 |
-0.03 |
17 |
0.18 |
7 |
|
NYJ D |
-14.2% |
4 |
-19.5% |
2 |
1.5% |
7 |
-0.09 |
4 |
0.08 |
15 |
For new readers, DVOA is a stat measures the value per play compared to an average team. So, the Steelers offense is 21.5% better than the average offense, and the Jets defense is 14.2% better than the average defense (DVOA is always measured from the standpoint of the offense). EPA stands for Expected Points Added. It is a stat that is based on the concept that at any down and distance from a certain place on the field, a team can be expected to score a certain number of points on average. EPA measures the difference in expected points after a play is made. I am 99% sure the data for rushes includes sacks, which would explain the negative average EPA for those plays.
Again, the Jets are very similar to the Ravens last week. They are a very good defense, with a great rushing defense and a solid pass defense. The performance of their pass defense will greatly help determine the outcome of this game. If they can force Ben Roethlisberger into interceptions like they did with Tom Brady, it will be a long day for the Steelers.
Situational data after the jump!
Offensive/Defensive Line Stats
|
Team |
Adjusted Line Yards |
Rank |
Power Success |
Rank |
Adjusted Sack Rate |
Rank |
|
PIT O |
3.88 |
19 |
64% |
12 |
8.6% |
29 |
|
NYJ D |
3.61 |
5 |
67% |
25 |
7.0% |
11 |
The Adjusted Line Yards essentially match up with the rushing rankings. There is one key about the Jets compared to Baltimore: the Jets are much better at pass rushing, though not elite. When Jason Taylor, though not what he used to be, is statistically the team’s fourth-best pass rusher (by sacks + QB hits from ANS), you have a very good defense.
Jets Defense vs. Types of Receivers
|
Vs. #1 WR |
Vs. #2 WR |
Vs. Other WR |
Vs. TE |
Vs. RB |
||||||||||
|
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
DVOA |
Rk |
Yds/Gm |
|
-7.7% |
10 |
58.8 |
11.8% |
24 |
49.7 |
-9.5% |
11 |
42.8 |
-3.4% |
9 |
44.7 |
-6.0% |
9 |
26.9 |
That wasn’t what you expected, right? Even though “Revis Island” was sunk for three games, ranking tenth on a per-play basis against #1 receivers is a bit surprising. That rank against #2 receivers is very telling, I think. Depending on the coverage schemes, someone will have a big game.
DVOA by Half
|
Team |
1st Half |
2nd Half |
Late/Close |
|
PIT O |
21.4% |
13.8% |
11.6% |
|
NYJ D |
-10.6% |
-4.7% |
-3.0% |
DVOA in the Red Zone
|
Team |
Red Zone Pass |
Red Zone Rush |
|
PIT O |
22.5% |
-4.7% |
|
NYJ D |
22.4% |
-15.9% |
DVOA by Down
|
Team |
1st Down |
2nd Down |
3rd/4th Down |
|
PIT O |
10.9% |
15.7% |
35.5% |
|
NYJ D |
-7.8% |
-33.2% |
32.1% |
A couple things stand out. First, if the Steelers get in the red zone, they are much more likely to get a TD against the Jets than they were against the Ravens, due to the Jets poor pass defense there. Second, the Jets are great on second down, but awful on third down, especially against the pass. They were much better against the Patriots last week, holding them to 5-for-14 on third down and 0-for-2 on fourth down. They obviously have to continue that to have a good chance of beating the Steelers on Sunday.
