To get you prepared for the AFC Championship game between the Steelers and Jets, we’re going deep into the advanced stats in three separate posts to see where each team has the advantage. As usual, Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats provide all the number-y goodness.
Surely it’s some kind of blogging foul to lead off a post with penalty discussion. “Starting an article with penalties, on the offense, 10 words, repeat first down.” I want you to have to click through for the meat of the special teams analysis, though. [laughs evilly]
Penalty Yards per Play
|
PIT |
0.46 |
26th |
|
NYJ |
0.45 |
24th |
As you can by the number and rankings in penalty yards per play from Advanced NFL Stats, the Steelers and Jets were both equally mediocre in committing penalties this year. In their first meeting, the Jets had three penalties for 19 yards, while the Steelers had three penalties for 35 yards, both below their season averages. Whether both teams come close to that will mainly depend on the teams’ discipline, though if the refs are whistle-happy, both teams will draw more penalties.
Special teams and key players after the jump!
Special Teams DVOA/Points Above Average
|
Team |
DVOA |
Rk |
FG/XP |
Rk |
Kicks |
Rk |
Kick Ret |
Rk |
Punt |
Rk |
Punt Ret |
Rk |
|
PIT |
-0.3% |
17 |
-1.1 |
24 |
-1.2 |
20 |
3.6 |
12 |
9.4 |
5 |
-5.5 |
28 |
|
NYJ |
5.4% |
4 |
-1.8 |
27 |
-0.6 |
17 |
20.0 |
1 |
15.4 |
2 |
-2.0 |
22 |
Since Football Outsiders hasn’t updated their special teams data, the only thing I can say about the Steelers that wasn’t covered last week is that their special teams performance in last week’s game was 13% below average. Eyeballing last week’s special teams stats, I’d say that tied to three things: the missed 43-yard field goal, poor averages on punt returns once again, and allowing Lardarius Webb to return both kicks and punts for good averages,
The Jets are very similar to the Ravens on special teams, except instead of having a great kickoff specialist, they have the league’s best kickoff return man in Brad Smith. It goes without saying that if Smith returns one for a TD like in week 15, it will have a big effect on the game. The Steelers go from facing the league’s best punter in Baltimore’s Sam Koch to the second best in Steve Weatherford. Weatherford is having a career year in his fifth year, placing a remarkable number of punts inside the 10 yard line (though that’s undoubtedly more a function of where he’s punting from than his average yards per punt).
If it has to come down to the…don’t say it…foot…NOOO…of Shaun Suisham or Nick Folk, Suisham actually has a better career field goal percentage (80.8% to 78.3%) than Folk, though Folk has higher percentages from 30-39 yards and 50+ yards. Still, I think Folk has the much better chance to pull a Doug Brien in this game.
Key Players
Here are three players from each team whose performance, good or bad, I think will determine the outcome of this game:
Steelers
-
WR Emmanuel Sanders: If Darrelle Revis shifts over to Mike Wallace at any point during the game, the performance of Sanders on those long passes will be key.
-
DE Ziggy Hood: Hood has really come into his own after being given a starting spot due to the injuries to Brett Keisel and Aaron Smith. If that continues, the Steelers defense will get that much better.
-
WR/KR Antonio Brown: As with Sanders, he could be a key weapon for Ben Roethlisberger if Wallace is shut down. With Folk’s kickoffs merely mediocre, Brown may have a chance at a big return.
Jets
-
SS Eric Smith: Given a starting spot at safety after Jim Leonhard’s injury, Smith has been mediocre, at least according to Advanced NFL Stats. He didn’t play in the week 15 game, and will most likely line up against Sanders or Brown.
-
LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson: He is one of the better left tackles in the league, but against the best defense in the league, he’ll be put to the test.
-
WR Jerricho Cotchery: Cotchery has been a shadow of his former self this year, but there’s always a chance he could play the Mason or Houshmandzadeh role and come up with a big catch out of nowhere.
