Periodically throughout the season, we will look at some of the various unconventional statistics offered by different websites in an effort to find out if any units on the Pittsburgh Steelers are performing particularly well or poorly.
Football Outsiders
The Football Outsiders statistics have been around since 2003, a long time in Internet years. Their statistics glossary explains most of their unfamiliar terminology. Their main statistic is DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average), which essentially compares the result of each play to the results of every other play with the same down, distance, field location, score, and time remaining. It is scaled so that 0 represents the league average, negative numbers represent a below-average offense (and an above-average defense), and positive numbers represent an above-average offense (and a below-average defense). The Steelers’ DVOA figures and NFL ranks through Week 1 are in the chart below. The DAVE figure combines performance through Week 1 with Football Outsiders’ preseason projections.
|
Unit |
DVOA |
Rank |
DAVE |
Rank |
Pass DVOA |
Rank |
Rush DVOA |
Rank |
|
Offense |
-37.8% |
29 |
-10.8% |
25 |
-9.6% |
28 |
-111.9% |
32 |
|
Defense |
-5.5% |
10 |
-8.9% |
1 |
6.3% |
12 |
-10.2% |
21 |
What stands out right away is that rushing offense figure. A list of the worst single-game rushing performances by DVOA was beyond a quick search, but that -111.9% likely ranks near the bottom. Most of that, unsurprisingly, was on Isaac Redman’s rush attempts. His current DVOA is -144%, which is the worst by a large margin among RBs with at least eight rush attempts. Starting with Week 2, offensive line stats will be posted by Football Outsiders, which will allow for a better handle on how that unit is performing relative to the running backs.
Advanced NFL Stats
This website has been around for a few years, and specializes in applying Win Probability to football. The idea behind Win Probability is that given any game situation (i.e. 3rd and 2 from the opponent’s 35-yard line down 14-10 with 4:15 left in the fourth quarter), a team wins a certain percentage of the time. Once the situation changes (i.e. a pass for five yards means it is 1st and 10 from the opponent’s 30-yard line with 4:02 left), it changes both the team’s expected points scored on that drive and the team’s chance to win the game. This means that at the start of any game, each team has a 50% chance to win. In practice, most teams are not so evenly matched, but to properly assess an individual’s contribution to victory through win probability, you have to start each team at 50%. The Steelers’ ranks in offense and defense for Win Probability Added and Expected Points Added are below:
|
WPA |
Rank |
EPA |
Rank |
|
|
Offense |
-0.35 |
29 |
-5.1 |
29 |
|
Defense |
0.16 |
20 |
-2.6 |
9 |
By Expected Points Added, the NFL ranks of 29th on offense and 9th on defense are close to those of Football Outsiders’ DVOA. The defense ranks 20th in Win Probability Added, but that’s basically just because the Titans had to score some points in order to win, and those points reduced the Steelers’ winning chances.
Cold Hard Football Facts
A relatively recent site, Cold Hard Football Facts focuses on team stats with almost no individual stats. They have several interesting ones, including “scoreability”, which is simply offensive yards divided by total points scored. Two statistics will be highlighted here today: Offensive Hog Index, which is their offensive line statistic averaging a team’s ranks in yards per rush attempt, negative passing plays, and 3rd down success rate, and Quarterback Rating Differential, which is the difference between a team’s offense and opposing offense at their modified QB rating formula.
|
OHI |
Rank |
QB Rating Diff |
Rank |
|
29.00 |
32 |
-8.78 |
21 |
At least by this measure, the offensive line currently ranks dead last in the NFL. The poor rank in QB Rating Differential is mostly due to the offense, which ranks 27th. The defense currently ranks 9th.
QuantCoach
The QuantCoach website attempts to measure a team’s play design. Their methods are described here. One of their tenets is that a QB acts as one of the play designers, and those who have seen Ben Roethlisberger’s oft-mentioned scrambling and downfield vision (not to mention all the things Peyton Manning does) would likely agree with this. Of all the teams in Week 1, the only two with lower play design numbers on offense were Cleveland and Jacksonville. The defensive performance was solid enough so that the Week 1 differential of -.0179 ranks 22nd in the NFL and 12th in the AFC (but second in the AFC North!).
That provides the main silver lining of Week 1: that two of the other three teams in the division played even worse than the Steelers did.
